Industry Level Key R&D Tasks for Flight Safety


Building up a database of virtual accident/ incident scenarios under multifactor operational conditions.


Prediction and quantitative evaluation of the effects of potentially unsafe composites of several (3 … 10) operational factors (pilot errors, onboard system malfunctions – mechanical failures/ logical errors, demanding weather) on flight safety.


Analysis of the cause-and-effect mechanisms of historic accidents/ incidents, identification of their pre-cursors, prediction and prevention of their re-occurrence in the future.


Studying the ‘what-if neighborhood’ of a flight accident occurred in multifactor conditions or under uncertainty aimed at the identification of the accident pre-cursors, cause-and-effect mechanism, ‘last-chance-for-recovery’ point and accident avoidance tactics.


Theoretical training of line pilots and test pilots in the field of physics and logic of complex flight domains:

  • demonstration of benign /standard and demanding situations from Flight Manuals, and analysis of their ‘what-if’ neighborhood,
  • systematization of knowledge on the pre-cursors of historic accidents,
  • learning the techniques to prevent unsafe developments in complex situations,
  • studying the effect of demanding factors and their composites on flight dynamics and control of specific aircraft.

The development of the industry-level knowledge base on the system dynamics and safety in complex conditions for a fleet of aircraft.


Research into innovative technologies for securing safe decisions in multifactor flight situations for manned and unmanned systems.


Customer-Focused Topics of Flight Safety R&D Services – Selected Examples




1. Virtual flight testing of the design alternatives for a future vehicle under multifactor flight conditions.

2. Evaluation of the System level effects of a new technology insertion into an existing/ new design in multifactor operational situations.

3. Verification of Flight Manual instructions under multifactor operational conditions for a new vehicle.

4. Assessment of PIO-resistance /automatic control algorithms performance in multifactor operational conditions.

5. Virtual testing and assessment of the performance of aircraft flight envelope protection algorithms in multifactor operational conditions.

6. Prototyping of flight safety risk prediction and protection displays in benign and complex (multifactor) operational situations.

7. Prototyping of onboard AI-based accident prediction & prevention systems for autonomous/ variable autonomy/ manned vehicles and vehicle groups.





1. Rehearsal of flight test scenarios under multifactor conditions using the System model.

2. Virtual (M&S based) flight test of a vehicle in multifactor conditions.

3. Parametric tune up of flight test control scenarios under multifactor conditions or uncertainty.

4. ‘What-if’ analysis of the multifactor ‘neighbourhood’ of a flight test situation.

5. Replacement of a part of flight test programs by fast-time simulations (virtual flight tests) using the system dynamics model.





1. Rehearsal of flight certification scenarios under multifactor conditions in M&S.

2. Virtual (M&S based) certification of a vehicle flight performance in multifactor conditions.

3. Replacement of a part of aircraft airworthiness test programs by fast-time flight M&S (virtual flight test & certification) in multifactor certification scenarios.

4. Development of a new standard for Means of Compliance for airworthiness certification based on the developed fast-time flight M&S methodology.





1. Affordable accelerated theoretical training of pilots in the domain of multifactor situations using the system dynamics model.

2. Demonstration of branching/chaotic system dynamics in multifactor situations.

3. Demonstration of Flight Manual situations and piloting instructions in multifactor situations.

4. Study of the effect of past accident/incident scenarios occurred under multifactor conditions on to a new vehicle.

5. ‘What-if’ analysis of the multifactor ‘neighbourhoods’ of past accidents/ incidents.





1.Identification of an incident’s pre-cursors and cause-and-effect mechanism under multi-factor conditions based on flight operation records.

2.Rehearsal of mission-specific safe and unsafe flight scenarios in complex operational conditions.

3.Demonstration of Flight Manual instructions in complex operational conditions.

4.Demonstration of the system dynamics under multifactor situations in manned simulators using M&S (including ‘bad’ and ‘good’ recovery scenarios).

5.‘What-if’ analysis of the effect of recorded pilot’s errors and other additional factors on operational flight safety.





1. Reconstruction of a flight accident under multifactor / uncertainty conditions.

2. Identification of an accident’s pre-cursors and cause-and-effect mechanism under multifactor conditions.

3. Identification of the probable cause-and-effect mechanism of an accident/incident under uncertainty.

4. Identification of the ‘last-chance for recovery’ point for an accident under multifactor conditions.

5. ‘What-if’ analysis of the multifactor ‘neighbourhood’ of an accident.

6. Independent analysis of a disputed accident under uncertainty.

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